DR. MANJU DAGAR
We all are waiting for Rock n role meeting which is on the way .The Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s approach to any deal may be it military or trade, is that it should not hamper – “national security”. Same followed by – Mr Donald Trump The President of The United States of America. Possibilities are that both went with common minimum program for –“India-US Trade Deal, and avoided the issue of confrontation”. Hence they have very less to say about the deals.
President Donald Trump’s trade war with the world involves multiple battles with US allies and others alike. Each battle uses a particular US legal rationale, such as calling foreign imports a “national security threat,” followed by Trump imposing tariffs and/or quotas on imports. Subsequent retaliation by trading partners and the prospect of further escalation risk significantly hampering trade and investment, and possibly the global economy.
President Donald Trump’s trade war with the world involves multiple battles with US allies and others alike. Each battle uses a particular US legal rationale, such as calling foreign imports a “national security threat,” followed by Trump imposing tariffs and/or quotas on imports. Subsequent retaliation by trading partners and the prospect of further escalation risk significantly hampering trade and investment, and possibly the global economy.
What India wants from US President Trump is heavy – Military Equipments, and Technology Transfer under – Make in India for – Telecom Sector. India expects to sign deals to raise its defense and energy purchases from the US during Donald Trump's visit. Rest other pacts between US trade delegation and India Inc.
Drone is famous chapter. India may demand US –MQ-9 Reaper drones one squadron for immediate release. As seeing the nature of the side-by-side Countries and Baloochistna, Pashtoon liberation agenda is in the card of India, Government needs – the accessories like – Dones, 5th Generation Planes and Heavy Airlift Military Cargo Planes. More Appache Helicopter will be purchased.
The Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi is very apparent in his demands with his other side United States President Donald Trumps, and officials must have worked very hard as both are hard negotiators as both feel responsible towards “voters”. But the good thing is – both wants - "special relationship". US demand is not too harsh, India and the US have been entangled in a series of trade spats across various sectors. The deal could touch upon Washington's demand of doing away with duty on American information and communication technology goods along with market access for its dairy products and duty cuts on Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
Trade officials of Indian and the US may have finalized the proposed deal which is expected to cover certain specific sectors, under Indo-US trade deal likely to be sealed during Donald Trump's visit to India, with some US concerns.
As, in the Budget Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi allocated high budgets for “ModiCare” and very heavy stress on farmers, in these two things - other states in India are following the same, it makes opportunity for American Business. Hence, in trade deals most likely, India wants US to facilitate greater market access for its products in the US in sectors such as agriculture, automobile, auto components and engineering. India is also expecting exemption from high duties imposed by the US on certain steel and aluminium products as well as resumption of benefits on tariff on certain products under their Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). On the other hand, the US wants greater market access for its farm and manufacturing products, dairy items and medical devices in India. It’s a give-n-take kind of settlement.
I want to write more about Geo - Politics during Trumps visit so i decided to meet Fox Petroleum chairman and Managing Director Dr. Ajay Kumar regarding Oil and Gas Geo-politics on TRUMPS visit to India . His main business region is in Gulf countries so he is right man to ask . Dr. Ajay Kumar said see Geopolitics is shifting now India must be prepared. US wants to sell both Oil & Gas and alternate energy source – The Solar Technology; With the US itself is a major oil and gas producer . Dr. Ajay explain his point and said see the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is no longer in position to enforce pricing mechanisms. It means, US Government will no longer have war business in Middle East. And, There has been a surge in US sanctions against major rival oil and gas producers such as Iran and Russia as US start playing exporting of Natural Gas and Crude Oil. To ensure sustainable development while also countering its rising energy bill, India will have to focus on its renewable energy targets such as solar energy.
Fox Petroleum Chairman Dr . Ajay Kumar continue his talk and said you can see who is keeping eye on Trumps visit to India? – It is China and Pakistan, mostly. The two good neighbors of India. Rise of China – wants No Rules from US and US imposing New Rules on China as US rules the world economy. US has problem with - China’s ambitions such as the Belt and Road Initiative have had massive repercussions for the global order, be it in the maritime, economic, diplomatic, technology or military domain. However, viability of its rapid growth with debt-binge is now under doubt, and the Chinese Communist Party still controls three-quarters of all rents and taxes in China. Whereas India has not planned any such big investment causing threat to world order. And, Trio – India, Japan and Korea can be good asset to Counter – Chinese ambitions.
Dr . Ajay carry on my point on next step and said , my understanding is that Xi Jinping may have overreached in taking the US head-on on trade war. Trump’s Policy on China, Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the global situation has changed to China’s disadvantage. And, what is disadvantage of China is advantage of India and US relations. The US is now pushing for structural changes in the Chinese economy. Trump’s China policy with bipartisan support is now becoming mainstream. Dr . Ajay stop his conversation with compile his last point . He said, 'It will help India to come on center stage in Asia. Whereas India from the very beginning, was not happy and putting its stand clear about Chinas’ One Belt One Road initiative as it will tremble too many economies. And not a secured option. American supported it '.
US-China Trade War may give scope for India during Tumps visit. As US is clamping down on technology transfers to China, questions are raised whether that would include clamping down transfers even to India. India does not have a significant R&D culture and much of the efforts are too dispersed to have major impact on Indian economy. Hope Prime Ministe will be able to survive before US conditions in context of technology transfer – what US wants to transfer in the name of transfer of technology.
What – India needs from United States is – 5G Technology, However, there is an international discontentment on China playing a key role in defining and controlling the model, the architecture, and the agenda of 5G. US wants India market for equipment's whereas China exist in India and cheaper to Compared to US Technology.
Whereas, American blackmailing to Pakistan to show that secret agreement between Pakistan and China will be in closed door agenda with Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, in context of what next – if, FATF may not blacklist Pakistan. If, it happens, then – China may have to pay more billions for Pakistan survival to protects its secrecy of CPEC agreement. (Dr.Manju Dagar is a Senior international journalist )